As expected and predicted, HR 511 expired when the House adjourned, once more "saving" boas and pythons from the clutches of federal legislators just in the nick of time. Before we go around patting ourselves on the back, shooting off fireworks, and waving victory flags, consider this.

Logistically, HR 511 and all its predecessors never had a chance of passing, regardless of what either side said or how either side spun it.

Without question, based on the laws of statistics alone, the same or a similar bill will reappear again in 2013 or 2014 under a new HB or SB number, and it, too, will die a long, slow, tortuous death -- but not until after all the lobbyists on both sides spend months making speeches, giving interviews, asking for money, soliciting support, and claiming victory. And then it will happen again in 2015, 2016, 2017...

Beginning to see a pattern here?

There has never, ever, been a House Bill or Senate Bill specifically regarding any reptiles or amphibians that has ever -- ever -- been signed into law by a President. And odds are, there never will be. Statistically. Realistically. The path for most federal legislation is long, fraught with blind turns, and usually reaches a dead end. It's even more so for herp-related issues. For it to actually happen is almost a mathematical impossibility at this point.

Does this mean boas and pythons are safe? No. The remainder of the "Big Nine," the ones that the Fish and Wildlife Service didn't ban last January, are in still in limbo at the federal level. And they can be banned any moment, at the stroke of a pen, without hearings, requests for comment, or a chance to write letters to senators. All that is left is the decision.

And at the state level, things change all the time, and boas, pythons, and many other species are constantly at risk.

There is still so much work to be done, and there are still bridges to be built (and some that need to be re-built). We have to work smarter, not harder, and we need to continue to work toward resolving our issues with the agencies involved.

We need to stop scaring everyone with threats that may never actually materialize, and focus on the threats that are real, and deal with them with a much more reasoned, effective response. And we need to stop running the flag up the pole every time someone introduces this bill, or that resolution, and calling out the militia and scaring away hobbyists and businesses.

As a community, we have worked a long and hard road to build systems to respond to and manage these threats. Along the way we have done many things right, and we have done many things wrong. But while I know there's no doubt the threat to our hobby and our community is real, there's also no doubt that, given a reasoned, effective, organized response, it's also very manageable.